"The turn-around in home prices seen in the Spring and Summer has faded," David M. Blitzer, chairman of the Index Committee at Standard & Poors today, "with only seven of the 20 cities seeing month-to-month gains, although all 20 continue to show improvements on a year-to-year-basis."
Overall, he said, the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index through October 2009 should be seen as "flat," he said.
"Coming after a series of solid gains, these data are likely to spark worries that home prices are about to take a second drip," he said, adding, however, that "before jumping to conclusions, recognize that the one time that happened at the beginning of the 1980s, Fed policy saw dramatic reversals, which is very different from the stable and consistent Fed policy we have today."
"Further," he continued, "sales of existing homes - those included in the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices - have been very strong in recent months, working off the inventories of houses for sale. At the same time, housing starts remain weak, fears that the market will be swamped by a wave of foreclosures are heard and government programs aimed at the housing market will expire in the first half of 2010."
"As of October 2009, average home prices across the United States are at similar levels to where they were in the autumn of 2003. From the peak in the second quarter of 2006 through the trough in April 2009, the 10-City Composite is down 33.5 percent and the 20-City Composite is down 32.6 percent," according to Mr. Blitzer.
San Francisco, he continued, has seen seven consecutive months of positive returns and San Diego has seen six and Los Angeles and Phoenix five, he said, adding that "Las Vegas remains the one market that has not seen a glimmer of hope so far this year," with prices having "declined for 38 consecutive months."
The index for the New York metropolitan area in October 2009 was 175.01, unchanged from September and down 7.7 percent over the past year.
Overall, he said, the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index through October 2009 should be seen as "flat," he said.
"Coming after a series of solid gains, these data are likely to spark worries that home prices are about to take a second drip," he said, adding, however, that "before jumping to conclusions, recognize that the one time that happened at the beginning of the 1980s, Fed policy saw dramatic reversals, which is very different from the stable and consistent Fed policy we have today."
"Further," he continued, "sales of existing homes - those included in the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices - have been very strong in recent months, working off the inventories of houses for sale. At the same time, housing starts remain weak, fears that the market will be swamped by a wave of foreclosures are heard and government programs aimed at the housing market will expire in the first half of 2010."
"As of October 2009, average home prices across the United States are at similar levels to where they were in the autumn of 2003. From the peak in the second quarter of 2006 through the trough in April 2009, the 10-City Composite is down 33.5 percent and the 20-City Composite is down 32.6 percent," according to Mr. Blitzer.
San Francisco, he continued, has seen seven consecutive months of positive returns and San Diego has seen six and Los Angeles and Phoenix five, he said, adding that "Las Vegas remains the one market that has not seen a glimmer of hope so far this year," with prices having "declined for 38 consecutive months."
The index for the New York metropolitan area in October 2009 was 175.01, unchanged from September and down 7.7 percent over the past year.
Architecture Critic
Carter Horsley
Since 1997, Carter B. Horsley has been the editorial director of CityRealty. He began his journalistic career at The New York Times in 1961 where he spent 26 years as a reporter specializing in real estate & architectural news. In 1987, he became the architecture critic and real estate editor of The New York Post.
6sqft delivers the latest on real estate, architecture, and design, straight from New York City.