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The New York metropolitan area's "shadow inventory" of distressed residential properties, which are 90 days or more delinquent on mortgage payments, in foreclosure, or real estate owned and have not yet "hit" the market, will take the longest to clear - at 103 months - assuming the current liquidation rates, according to a report issued today by Standard & Poor's.

The New York area's rate is "3.5 times the company's estimate for the national average, at 34 months, and far exceeds the level for the Phoenix metro area, which has a projected 16 months of inventory to clear, the lowest of the 20 areas included in the S&P/Case-Schiller Home Price Indicies."

"Our current estimate of the months to clear the distressed properties in the Miami metro area...is over 40 percent higher than our estimate for the Dallas metro area. However, our estimate for Miami, at 62 months, is less than half its March 2008 peak of 129, which suggests that Miami may be past the worst of the buildup. Our estimate for Dallas, on the other hand, is at its highest point yet, at 43 months, up from about 19 months in September 2008," the report noted.

The study found that Las Vegas, Los Angeles, Minneapolis, Phoenix, San Francisco, and Washington D.C. "also seem to be past their highs," adding that "inventories began to significantly increase around the end of 2005, peaked in early 2008, and have subsequently fallen to levels close to those in the beginning of 2005." It added, however, that inventories in Los Angeles and Washington, D.C. "seem to be rising once again."

In Atlanta, Boston and Denver, "the months of inventory are currently at their highest levels year and appear to be trending up," it added.
Architecture Critic Carter Horsley Since 1997, Carter B. Horsley has been the editorial director of CityRealty. He began his journalistic career at The New York Times in 1961 where he spent 26 years as a reporter specializing in real estate & architectural news. In 1987, he became the architecture critic and real estate editor of The New York Post.