Governor Kathy Hochul has just released new details about her pied-a-terre tax proposal, announcing that it will apply to an estimated 10,000 second homes and raise $500 million in annual revenue. The real estate industry and some of New York's wealthiest have come out in opposition to the plan, but it remains to be seen how it will affect the luxury real estate market.
If past events are anything to go on, the scepter of a pied-a-terre tax may not deter some from buying New York City real estate as a safe investment in volatile times. As a global center of commerce and culture, New York City’s real estate market is deeply integrated with the world at large and is not immune to geopolitical shocks, even those originating thousands of miles away. Fortunately, the city’s real estate market, which has been stress-tested by multiple shocks at home and abroad in recent years, is also among the world’s most resilient. This article explains why the city’s real estate market remains in high demand, even as markets around the world face growing uncertainty.
In this article:
Resilience in the face of catastrophe
To appreciate the resilience of the local real estate market, one need only consider how it has performed during the three most significant market shocks since 2000.
September 11
Surprisingly, apart from a momentary decline in sales volumes and prices in Lower Manhattan, following 9/11, the city’s real estate market not only held its value but emerged from the crisis stronger than ever. While Q4 2001 sales volumes more or less held steady, by early 2002, sales were rebounding. In fact, the first quarter of 2002—normally a slow quarter for sales in New York City—saw sales volumes spike by 32%.
Most surprising, however, is what happened to the Downtown market over the following decade. Rather than go into decline, the attacks ultimately planted the seeds for Lower Manhattan’s transformation into one of the city’s most sought-after residential property destinations.
The 2008 financial crisis
The 2008 financial crisis, also known as the “mortgage crisis,” dealt a more direct blow to the local real estate market. In sharp contrast to the housing market’s performance following the 9/11 attacks, the initial impact of the mortgage crisis was severe and lingered much longer. In Q4 2008, sales contracts fell by 48%, and in Q1 2009, they dropped another 33%. Property values also declined by 10% in Q4 2008 and 17% in Q1 2009.
While the recovery took time, with the market stabilizing only in 2010, what followed would ultimately transform the city’s real estate market. From 2010 to 2017, both sales volumes and prices climbed steadily. By 2017, property values were roughly 30% higher than before the financial crisis.
The Covid-19 pandemic
The most recent event to disrupt the New York City real estate market was the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. In this case, it wasn’t just the market that collapsed—the city itself temporarily shut down, halting in-person property showings for the first three months of the pandemic. As a result, sales volumes fell dramatically. Corcoran data indicates that in Q2 2020, Manhattan sales dropped year-over-year to 1,605 closings, representing the lowest number of closings since the early 1990s.
By Q4 2020, however, a combination of low interest rates, flexible financing policies, and shifting housing needs had reactivated the market. Over the next two years, Manhattan’s real estate market, along with other markets citywide, not only rebounded from the pandemic but also recorded some of its highest sales volumes ever. At the same time, prices—which bottomed out in July 2020—recovered and reached new highs, impacting both sales and rental prices.
Assessing the current market
In the first quarter of 2026, Manhattan experienced a modest uptick in year-over-year closings, along with a slight increase in prices. While signed contracts were down overall, properties also spent fewer days on the market. Notably, the vast majority of activity—consistent with trends over the past three years—occurred in the luxury condo market. The average asking price in Q1 2026 was $2.681 million, with condos significantly outperforming co-ops. This likely reflects the fact that, with interest rates remaining elevated, cash transactions, driven by both domestic and foreign investors, continue to dominate the market, particularly in Manhattan.
When the pied-a-terre tax is enacted, it will be carried out in two phases. For the first two years a tax between 4% and 6.5% would apply to second homes with a so-called market value of $1 million or more as determined by the NYC Department of Finance (which would translate to a $5 million sales value). After two years, second homes will be taxed at a considerably lower rate and not assessed by market value; the city still needs to devise a new system to value second homes in this phase.
Pied-a-terre tax notwithstanding, this may be an especially strategic moment for investors to consider New York City’s resilient real estate market, and even buyers who require financing stand to benefit from entering the market now. As past shocks have demonstrated, the city’s co-ops and condos have not only historically retained their value during periods of local and global market volatility but, in the twenty-first century, have often appreciated rapidly in the aftermath of these crises.
From 9/11 to the financial crisis to the pandemic, one thing is clear—even market shocks originating close to home tend to have only a temporary impact on local real estate sales volumes and values. As global markets face increased uncertainty due to geopolitical conflicts and rising energy prices, New York City real estate again emerges as an attractive destination for investors.
Great listings with open houses
205 East 63rd Street, #7C
$400,000
Lenox Hill | Cooperative | 1 Bedroom, 1 Bath
Open House: Sunday, May 17, 2026
205 East 63rd Street, #7C (Serhant)
160 East 91st Street, #8A
$500,000
Carnegie Hill | Cooperative | 1 Bedroom, 1 Bath
Open House: Sunday, May 17, 2026
160 East 91st Street, #8A (Douglas Elliman Real Estate -)
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The John Murray House, #PHC
$599,000
Murray Hill | Cooperative | Studio, 1 Bath
Open House: Sunday, May 17, 2026
The John Murray House, #PHC (Corcoran Group)
The Gramercy House, #1EF
$630,000
Gramercy Park | Cooperative | 2 Bedrooms, 1.5 Baths | 800 ft2
Open House: Sunday, May 17, 2026
The Gramercy House, #1EF (Brown Harris Stevens Residential Sales LLC)
The Gramercy House, #7P
$639,000
Gramercy Park | Cooperative | 1 Bedroom, 1 Bath
Open House: Sunday, May 17, 2026
The Gramercy House, #7P (Compass)
The Beekman Hill House, #2D
$650,000
Beekman/Sutton Place | Cooperative | 1 Bedroom, 1 Bath
Open House: Sunday, May 17, 2026
The Beekman Hill House, #2D (Brown Harris Stevens Residential Sales LLC)
Goodhue House, #3N
$675,000
Murray Hill | Cooperative | 1 Bedroom, 1 Bath
Open House: Sunday, May 17, 2026
Goodhue House, #3N (Brown Harris Stevens Brooklyn LLC)
2002 Fifth Avenue, #3D
$740,000
Harlem | Cooperative | 1 Bedroom, 1 Bath | 787 ft2
Open House: Sunday, May 17, 2026
2002 Fifth Avenue, #3D (Sothebys International Realty)
Imperial House, #2R
$850,000
Lenox Hill | Cooperative | 1 Bedroom, 1.5 Baths
Open House: Sunday, May 17, 2026
Imperial House, #2R (Douglas Elliman Real Estate -)
330 East 70th Street, #6D
$899,000 (-9.6%)
Lenox Hill | Cooperative | 2 Bedrooms, 2 Baths | 1,200 ft2
Open House: Sunday, May 17, 2026
330 East 70th Street, #6D (Ostrov Realty Group Limited)
167 East 61st Street, #5B
$925,000
Lenox Hill | Cooperative | 1 Bedroom, 1.5 Baths | 1,000 ft2
Open House: Sunday, May 17, 2026
167 East 61st Street, #5B (Corcoran Group)
The Windsor Terrace Apartments, #3C
$995,000
Windsor Terrace | Condominium | 2 Bedrooms, 1 Bath | 884 ft2
Open House: Sunday, May 17, 2026
The Windsor Terrace Apartments, #3C (Serhant)
Jadam, #4G
$999,000
Central Park West | Condominium | 1 Bedroom, 1 Bath | 796 ft2
Open House: Sunday, May 17, 2026
Jadam, #4G (Douglas Elliman Real Estate -)
41 West 96th Street, #4C
$999,000
Central Park West | Cooperative | 2 Bedrooms, 1 Bath
Open House: Sunday, May 17, 2026
41 West 96th Street, #4C (Compass)
Southgate, #10C
$1,195,000
Beekman/Sutton Place | Cooperative | 2 Bedrooms, 2 Baths
Open House: Sunday, May 17, 2026
Southgate, #10C (Douglas Elliman Real Estate -)
125 East 63rd Street, #4C
$1,250,000
Park/Fifth Ave. to 79th St. | Cooperative | 2 Bedrooms, 2 Baths
Open House: Sunday, May 17, 2026
125 East 63rd Street, #4C (Brown Harris Stevens Residential Sales LLC)
95 Dikeman Street, #2
$1,250,000
Red Hook | Condominium | 2 Bedrooms, 2 Baths | 1,258 ft2
Open House: Sunday, May 17, 2026
95 Dikeman Street, #2 (Compass)
Gramercy North, #16D
$1,350,000
Gramercy Park | Condop | 2 Bedrooms, 2 Baths
Open House: Sunday, May 17, 2026
Gramercy North, #16D (Corcoran Group)
The Zachary, #3B
$1,500,000
East Village | Condominium | 1 Bedroom, 1 Bath | 950 ft2
Open House: Sunday, May 17, 2026
The Zachary, #3B (Douglas Elliman Real Estate -)
Austin Nichols House, #A408
$1,595,000
Williamsburg | Condominium | 2 Bedrooms, 2 Baths | 977 ft2
Open House: Sunday, May 17, 2026
Austin Nichols House, #A408 (Corcoran Group)
150 West 87th Street, #4A
$1,680,000
Broadway Corridor | Cooperative | 3 Bedrooms, 2 Baths
Open House: Sunday, May 17, 2026
150 West 87th Street, #4A (Compass)
173 Riverside Drive, #9N
$1,995,000
Riverside Dr./West End Ave. | Cooperative | 3 Bedrooms, 3 Baths
Open House: Sunday, May 17, 2026
173 Riverside Drive, #9N (Corcoran Group)
320 Riverside Drive, #PH16B
$2,195,000
Riverside Dr./West End Ave. | Cooperative | 2 Bedrooms, 2 Baths
Open House: Sunday, May 17, 2026
320 Riverside Drive, #PH16B (Douglas Elliman Real Estate -)
200 East 16th Street, #1DE
$2,296,000
Gramercy Park | Cooperative | 2 Bedrooms, 2.5 Baths
Open House: Sunday, May 17, 2026
200 East 16th Street, #1DE (Corcoran Group)
Stewart House, #9B
$2,350,000
Greenwich Village | Cooperative | 2 Bedrooms, 2.5 Baths
Open House: Sunday, May 17, 2026
Stewart House, #9B (Douglas Elliman Real Estate -)
25 Fifth Avenue, #12F
$2,500,000
Greenwich Village | Condominium | 2 Bedrooms, 1 Bath | 988 ft2
Open House: Sunday, May 17, 2026
25 Fifth Avenue, #12F (Compass)
177 East 77th Street, #PHC
$2,600,000
Lenox Hill | Condominium | 3 Bedrooms, 2 Baths | 1,305 ft2
Open House: Sunday, May 17, 2026
177 East 77th Street, #PHC (Compass)
40 West 17th Street, #PH12C
$3,000,000
Chelsea | Cooperative | 3 Bedrooms, 2 Baths
Open House: Sunday, May 17, 2026
40 West 17th Street, #PH12C (Compass)
The Alden, #905/906
$3,690,000
Central Park West | Cooperative | 3 Bedrooms, 3 Baths
Open House: Sunday, May 17, 2026
The Alden, #905/906 (Compass)
The Renwick, #6
$4,750,000
SoHo | Cooperative | 3 Bedrooms, 2 Baths | 3,000 ft2
Open House: Sunday, May 17, 2026
The Renwick, #6 (Leven Real Estate)
Would you like to tour any of these properties?
Just complete the info below.
Or call us at (212) 755-5544
Would you like to tour any of these properties?
Contributing Writer
Cait Etherington
Cait Etherington has over twenty years of experience working as a journalist and communications consultant. Her articles and reviews have been published in newspapers and magazines across the United States and internationally. An experienced financial writer, Cait is committed to exposing the human side of stories about contemporary business, banking and workplace relations. She also enjoys writing about trends, lifestyles and real estate in New York City where she lives with her family in a cozy apartment on the twentieth floor of a Manhattan high rise.
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