TEN expert predictions for the NYC real estate market in 2026 | Zohran Mamdani by Dmitryshein - Own work, CC BY-SA 4.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=166970377
Housing was on all New Yorkers' minds in 2025, as Zohran Mamdani won the mayoral election on an affordability platform that included freezing the rent for stabilized apartments. His platform triggered a mix of predictions for New York City housing, from indifference to alarm and some dire warnings about the luxury market. While it's still too early to tell due to the length of time transactions take, one month after his win, the Manhattan luxury apartment market continues to surge. However, it’s clear that the high prices dominating the city's condo, co-op, housing and rental market aren’t significantly budging anytime soon.
So what else might 2026 have in store for New York City’s real estate market? CityRealty spoke to experts across the city to find out. Most believe that the sales market will rebound and competition will remain for well-priced listings. An influx of new rental units will offer more options, though the jury’s mixed if renters will stay put or jump at new opportunities. Some political wild cards remain in play, but the ultra-luxury market isn’t going anywhere. And it is a safe bet that affordability will remain a top concern among many New Yorkers.
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75 Wall Street (Platinum Properties)
Perhaps NYC’s new mayor won’t truly shake the real estate market
"Periods of transition breed uncertainty, often leading to fleeting hesitancy before the market finds its rhythm again. Even with shifting conditions post mayoral election, I expect stable pricing and steady absorption in 2026. Buyers are less concerned with politics and more focused on product. They want turnkey homes, whether that’s new development or modern, well-executed renovations. It also doesn’t hurt for buildings to have amenities people will actually use: gyms, co-working spaces, pet-friendly options (relief areas/dog runs), and rooftop terraces/lounges.”
—Thomas Handschiegel, VP of Business Development, Platinum Properties
The Treadwell | https://www.cityrealty.com/nyc/lenox-hill/the-treadwell-249-east-62nd-street/1430
In fact, experts predict the sales market will rebound and to expect competition
“I expect 2026 to be the first true rebound year for NYC real estate with stronger buyer activity, healthier absorption, and a clear rise in sales volume after two slower cycles. Prices should grow modestly driven by luxury and new development, while older or high carrying cost properties remain more sensitive.
"By late 2026, rates easing into the low 6% to high 5% range should unlock pent-up demand. Inventory may increase slightly but will stay limited in prime Manhattan, keeping those segments competitive.
Rentals will likely flatten, encouraging more renters to buy as affordability improves. Overall, 2026 should deliver a more active, balanced, and confident market. We are excited for it & buyers should be too!”
—Shawnalei Tamayose, Brown Harris Stevens’ Union Square office
"By late 2026, rates easing into the low 6% to high 5% range should unlock pent-up demand." —Shawnalei Tamayose, Brown Harris Stevens’ Union Square office
“As we move into 2026, New York City is set up to enter the year in a fundamentally stronger position than many national markets. While roughly a third of major U.S. metros are now seeing year-over-year price declines (largely those that experienced the fastest appreciation during COVID), NYC is likely to continue demonstrating stability, balance, and, after a prolonged period of price stagnation, the beginnings of measured price appreciation. Buyers should remain active yet discerning, and turnkey, well-located homes are expected to attract the most competition, sell quickly, and give sellers some pricing power.
"Buyer motivations also appear to be shifting in a more sustainable direction. Rather than moving based on fear of missing out or attempting to time mortgage rates, buyers in 2026 are likely to make decisions based on life needs. As rates continue drifting lower, buyer psychology should further improve, and we may see a gradual transition from renting to buying as the rent-versus-buy equation begins to tilt back in favor of ownership for households with longer holding periods.”
"Buyer motivations also appear to be shifting in a more sustainable direction. Rather than moving based on fear of missing out or attempting to time mortgage rates, buyers in 2026 are likely to make decisions based on life needs. As rates continue drifting lower, buyer psychology should further improve, and we may see a gradual transition from renting to buying as the rent-versus-buy equation begins to tilt back in favor of ownership for households with longer holding periods.”
—Jared Antin, Executive Director, Brown Harris Stevens NYC
View south from Fifth Avenue over Central Park (Compass)
“Overall, I believe that 2026 will be a more robust year for the NYC residential real estate market than 2025. Here’s why…
"I expect that we will see an uptick in new listings for sale across the city. We will probably see an increase of about +5–10% in new homes coming to market citywide. In 2026, more sellers will choose to enter the market now that there’s more clarity after the NYC mayoral election and Fed’s rate cuts. That increase in new inventory should correlate to higher sales.
"In 2026, buyers will get choice, not bargains – and finding a deal will get more difficult! More inventory means more leverage for buyers in terms of pricing and closing concessions, but they won’t see fire-sale discounts. That said, sellers will continue to need ‘pricing discipline.’ Overpricing any home will kill momentum, as the best-priced properties dominate showing traffic. For sellers broadly, it will be less about just list and wait for offers, rather a successful sale will be dependent upon realistic pricing, property condition, and marketing. Overpricing will likely lead to a slower sale or eventual discounts. If it's not compelling, it's hardly selling!”
"I expect that we will see an uptick in new listings for sale across the city. We will probably see an increase of about +5–10% in new homes coming to market citywide. In 2026, more sellers will choose to enter the market now that there’s more clarity after the NYC mayoral election and Fed’s rate cuts. That increase in new inventory should correlate to higher sales.
"In 2026, buyers will get choice, not bargains – and finding a deal will get more difficult! More inventory means more leverage for buyers in terms of pricing and closing concessions, but they won’t see fire-sale discounts. That said, sellers will continue to need ‘pricing discipline.’ Overpricing any home will kill momentum, as the best-priced properties dominate showing traffic. For sellers broadly, it will be less about just list and wait for offers, rather a successful sale will be dependent upon realistic pricing, property condition, and marketing. Overpricing will likely lead to a slower sale or eventual discounts. If it's not compelling, it's hardly selling!”
— Kunal Khemlani, The Corcoran Group
“2026 is unlikely to be a ‘price correction’ story—it’s a competition story. Well-priced listings should benefit from tighter supply and renewed demand, particularly in Manhattan and Brooklyn resale markets. Buyers hoping to wait for significantly lower rates may face a more crowded landscape later in the year. For sellers preparing for spring, the earlier they enter this window of rising confidence, the better positioned they’ll be.”
— Serjik Markarian, Brown Harris Stevens’ East Side Office
The new development glut is becoming less significant
Buyers will continue to seek out-turn-key spaces, particularly in the luxury segment (they will need to move fast, as there is always competition). The NYC market is one of the least rate-sensitive across all price points, and this will continue throughout 2026 regardless of changing interest rates. In Manhattan, cash will remain king regardless of mortgage rates. If the stock market slows down, we actually expect that more buyers will consider paying cash in the luxury sector.
The new development glut is becoming less significant. Long-languishing units and projects are finally moving, and the future pipeline is relatively slim as a result of several years of high financing and construction costs, which have impeded new construction. Carrying costs have experienced significant jumps in the last five years, far outpacing inflation. Even at the luxury segment we are seeing buyers paying close attention to maintenance fees and carrying costs. Buyers are increasingly emphasizing due diligence when it comes to condo and coop board financials. A well maintained and well operated building is a strong selling point for many buyers.
1122 Madison will likely be one of the best-selling developments of 2026 | Credit: Legion Investment Group and Nahla Capital
In terms of neighborhoods, I foresee continued interest in the Upper East Side from buyers and renters alike. Purchasers who can qualify can get significantly more space, even on Park or Fifth, than they can in downtown hotspots like Noho or the West Village. Renters can find comparative deals in pockets like Yorkville. The Upper East Side's new development market is on fire, with many buildings selling out before reaching the public market.
— Lisa Simonsen, Brown Harris Stevens’ East Side Office
The federal government still offers some wild cards
“The sales market may see a modest uptick in both transactions and prices, with the upper half of the market growing faster than the lower half. This is all based on the lack of significant disruptions from expectations, which is a big assumption. The biggest wild card will be whether the Supreme Court finds tariffs unconstitutional, which would quickly lower inflationary pressures that are currently rising, keeping mortgage rates from falling further than they would without the current tariff policy.”
—Jonathan Miller, President and CEO, Miller Samuel Inc.
Corner exposure at Walker Tower (Compass)
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The luxury market will remain strong, and amenities must impress
“The ultra-luxury sector is showing immediate activity, confirming the city's appeal. Ideal opportunities are awaiting those prepared to enter the market in Q1! New York will always be New York, and there are always buyers. Is there hesitation at times? Sure, but those diving in are not regretting it, and it will only build momentum in 2026.
"Speaking of which, there is tremendous traction with zoning revisions, particularly under the ‘City of Yes’ initiative, which will introduce new inventory and loosen regulatory constraints, ultimately driving positive market movement and increased dialogue. Net positive forecast for the future of NYC”
— Vickey Barron, Compass
“The luxury segment is expected to continue to outperform, driven by a healthy Wall Street bonus season, a high share of cash transactions, and international demand. Transaction volume should rise alongside inventory as more sellers recognize improving activity heading into spring and summer. Price growth will depend on the balance between supply and demand, but an increase in move-up trades may also play an important role.
"Many who purchased in 2020–2021 are sitting on equity, approaching the natural lifecycle of their home, and may have adjustable-rate mortgages nearing reset, factors that counter the lock-in effect and could motivate them to sell and trade up. That dynamic should add both liquidity and demand, creating a healthier marketplace and supporting measured price appreciation into 2027.”
"Many who purchased in 2020–2021 are sitting on equity, approaching the natural lifecycle of their home, and may have adjustable-rate mortgages nearing reset, factors that counter the lock-in effect and could motivate them to sell and trade up. That dynamic should add both liquidity and demand, creating a healthier marketplace and supporting measured price appreciation into 2027.”
—Jared Antin, Executive Director, Brown Harris Stevens NYC
Waldorf Astoria Residences New York
"As one of New York’s most established luxury residential addresses, Waldorf Astoria Residences New York on world-renowned Park Avenue continues to attract buyers who value exceptional service and a distinguished living experience with the city’s best amenities. With growing global attention on the opening of JPMorgan Chase’s new headquarters just a few blocks away and the renewed recognition of Midtown as a leading center of international finance, interest in the residences has strengthened. This combination of heritage, lifestyle, and location is bringing more inquiries from those seeking primary homes, pieds-à-terre, and thoughtful long-term investments.”
—Loretta Shanahan, Senior Director of Sales, Waldorf Astoria Residences New York
Neighborhoods and developments experts have their eyes on
“Condo sales are poised for growth in established luxury markets like Brooklyn Heights, Tribeca, and the Upper East Side. The city’s resilience remains its most reliable market indicator, and that hasn’t changed."
—Thomas Handschiegel, VP of Business Development, Platinum Properties
Rendering of The Myles (BKSK Architects)
“At The Myles, located at the crossroads of Chelsea and Flatiron, we are entering 2026 with a clear understanding of what is driving the high end of the market: a profound shortage of new development inventory in the best locations, and a strong buyer preference for boutique, well-executed buildings with amenities. Manhattan is approaching a historic supply low, and buyers are moving quickly when they find real quality. Downtown, where lifestyle, architecture, and walkability come together, the most resilient demand continues to be in intimate, design-forward properties that offer privacy and authenticity. The significant early interest we have seen at The Myles reflects this.”
—Nicole Hechter, Sales Director at The Myles, Corcoran New Development
“Public amenities will increasingly play a decisive role in renter retention. Dog runs, playgrounds, parks and waterfront access have remained a top renters priority. Long Island City and Hunter’s Point South have seen a wave of new developments as renters seek serenity along the waterfront, though 2-20 Malt Drive and 2-21 Malt Drive are the only two developments in LIC directly situated on the coastline.
"Prospect Heights is similarly experiencing an influx of new lease-ups. We’ve noticed significant demand for 595 Dean Street’s unparalleled outdoor amenities, spanning three parks, a playground, a dog run, Chelsea Piers Fitness, and the Chelsea Piers Field House.”
"Prospect Heights is similarly experiencing an influx of new lease-ups. We’ve noticed significant demand for 595 Dean Street’s unparalleled outdoor amenities, spanning three parks, a playground, a dog run, Chelsea Piers Fitness, and the Chelsea Piers Field House.”
—Zoe Elghanayan, Principal and Senior Vice President, TF Cornerstone
One Wall Street (One Wall Street Sales)
"Destinations such as Whole Foods, Life Time, and Printemps at One Wall Street reflect the Financial District’s maturation into a place where convenience and lifestyle converge. Lower Manhattan has rapidly emerged as one of the city’s most compelling luxury neighborhoods, having grown into a vibrant residential destination defined by culture, wellness, retail, and full-service living, all of which are embodied within the building.
As buyers look toward 2026, demand remains strong amid contracting supply and the growing rarity of established, service-forward luxury residences, reinforcing the Financial District’s position at the forefront of Manhattan’s next chapter. This evolution has been tremendously positive for Downtown as a whole.”
—Anna Zarro, President, One Wall Street Sales
An influx of rental units is coming
“When it comes to rentals, I expect positive trends for apartment seekers as well. Due to a robust pipeline for the launch of new development rental buildings, coupled with the ‘City of Yes’ initiatives which has prompted many office-to-rental conversions, we’ll see this increased supply relax some rent price increases.
"It depends on the borough, of course, and the amount of new development versus available apartment stock in the local area. For example, Brooklyn and Queens continue to experience a new development boom – with approximately 11,500 and 13,300 new rental units expected to come in market in the next three years in those boroughs, respectively. This will give renters vastly more choice and that’s always a good thing.”
— Kunal Khemlani, The Corcoran Group
Downtown Brooklyn and Gowanus have hundreds of rental units coming online over the next year
But expect rents to remain sky high
“The rental market will continue to see record or near-record prices throughout the year if mortgage rates remain elevated. Rental prices are currently at record levels, so the only way I can see a significant drop in rents is a significant decline in mortgage rates, which would shift excess rental demand into the purchase market. A large segment of the rental market is made up of would-be homebuyers camping out until mortgage rates drop meaningfully.”
— Jonathan Miller, President and CEO, Miller Samuel Inc.
Malt Drive (TFC)
Some renters will stay put
“After the surge of new development lease-ups in 2025, renters now have more choices than ever but what’s interesting is that many are choosing not to move at all. The average Manhattanite stays put for just over three years — longer than the national average, while Queens renters tend to keep their rental apartments even longer. It’s no surprise considering how competitive and compelling the market has become. Folks understand that premiere units can be harder to come by as demand continues to outpace the volume of units coming online. More importantly, this growing tendency to remain in place underscores a shift from transience to permanence as renters reconsider where they genuinely want to live long term.”
—Zoe Elghanayan, Principal and Senior Vice President, TF Cornerstone
Eighty Nine Dekalb (Douglas Elliman)
...while others will jump at opportunities
“Today’s renter expects a higher level of product quality, service, and brand reliability, and they’re willing to commit sight unseen — months in advance — when those expectations are met. We’ve been proactively driving this trend through the strong pre-leasing performance at Eighty Nine DeKalb in Downtown Brooklyn this year, as well as AVE Hamilton Green in White Plains. This shift is reshaping the leasing landscape. Pre-leasing is emerging as a true economic tool catalyzing absorption rather than serving as just a marketing milestone.”
—Whitney Arcaro, EVP, Chief Revenue Officer, Residential, RXR
Zohran Mamdani by Dmitryshein - Own work, CC BY-SA 4.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=166970377
Bottom Line: Affordability will continue to be on most New Yorker’s minds
“2026 won’t bring improved affordability to homebuyers and tenants.”
—Jonathan Miller, President and CEO, Miller Samuel Inc.
“Affordability has been a big topic of conversation recently, and we are seeing that reflected in the market. Buyers that can afford to purchase, are deciding to plant their flag in New York, knowing that in the event they relocate, the rents are so high here that the property can sustain itself with rental income. We think that trend will continue into 2026 and beyond.”
—Shaun Pappas, Partner, Starr Associates
Rendering courtesy of La Ostra Development Team | https://www.6sqft.com/city-unveils-plan-for-600-affordable-homes-soccer-field-and-stem-center-on-vacant-inwood-lot/
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Contributing Writer
Emily Nonko
Emily is a Brooklyn-based writer who has covered New York City real estate, architecture and design for Brownstoner, The Wall Street Journal, Dwell and other publications. You can follow her on Twitter @EmilyNonko.
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